001
Data Sovereignty / ODDInfrastructure PE / Asset Managers

The Custodial Mirage: Sovereignty in Outsourcing

Outsourcing to a “Tier-1” provider transfers the control, not the risk. SLAs cover availability, not logic. When the custodian becomes the single point of failure, who audits the auditor?

002
AI Agents / LiabilityNeobanks / Fintech VPs

The Interface Collapse: Auditing Agents Not Humans

When AI agents execute trades and move capital, traditional controls are obsolete. Banks enforce KYC — but have no protocol for KYA (Know Your Agent).

003
Food Security / FertiliserCommodity Houses / Agri-Risk

The Phosphate Shock: Oil of the Soil

Morocco holds 70% of the world’s phosphate reserves — higher concentration than OPEC has for oil. You cannot code your way out of chemistry.

004
Subsea Infrastructure / Red SeaTelcos / Digital Risk Leads

The Cable Cut: The Cloud Is Under the Ocean

99% of international data traffic travels via subsea cables. 16 critical cables run through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

005
Climate Risk / Human CapitalGiga-Project Developers / PIF

The Wet Bulb: Thermodynamics vs. Giga-Projects

At WBGT 32°C, safe work ratios demand 45 minutes of rest for every 15 of work. Automation is not efficiency — it is continuity.

006
Critical Minerals / Supply ChainBattery Investors / Industrial Strategy

The Refining Chokepoint: China Owns the Chemistry

China processes 65% of Lithium, 74% of Cobalt, and 90% of Rare Earths. Volatility is a weapon.

007
Maritime / SanctionsCommodity Traders / Insurers

Ghost Ships: The Shadow Fleet Premium

~1,100 vessels now operate outside the regulated insurance consensus — nearly 10% of the global tanker fleet.

008
ESG / ProtectionismCROs / Export Directors

The Carbon Wall: Green Is the New Camouflage

The EU’s CBAM adds 20–35% to Indian steel exports. If you cannot digitally prove provenance, your product is contraband.

009
Critical Minerals / AI InfraData Centre Investors / Mining

The Copper Crunch: AI’s Physical Debt

AI hyperscale facilities require 300–500% more copper per MW. ICSG forecasts a 150,000 tonne deficit in 2026.

010
Sanctions / De-DollarisationTreasurers / SWFs

Financial Warfare: The SWIFT Weaponisation

Freezing $300bn of Russian reserves signalled that “sovereign” reserves are not sovereign.

011
Cloud Resilience / GeopoliticsCIOs / Digital Risk Leads

The US-EAST-1 Dependency: Europe’s Digital Glass Jaw

~70% of global internet traffic flows through Ashburn, Virginia.

012
Logistics / Military MobilityCPK Investors / Defence Logistics

Port Polska: The NATO Logistics Hub

Poland is the single most critical logistics node in the Western Alliance. “Just-in-Time” is dead.

013
Civil-Military / RailDefence / MOD Logistics

The Last Mile Logic Gap: MACA vs. Civilian Rail

Military logistics runs on “Command” logic. Civilian rail runs on “Commercial Contract” logic. When these collide, the result is gridlock.

014
Supply Chain / Inventory DataLogistics / Tech Ops

Race Conditions: The 90-Day Compliance Lag

Physical goods move faster than the digital signal. If the dashboard says “In Stock” but the warehouse says otherwise, the asset value is zero.

015
Critical Minerals / GreenlandStrategic Trade / Defence

Arctic Earth: The Greenland Standoff

Greenland’s ice sheet reveals the world’s largest undeveloped Rare Earth deposits. A mine in Greenland is effectively a NATO asset.

016
Macro-Risk / PensionsAsset Managers / SWFs

The Liquidity Cliff: When Boomers Cash Out

10,000 Boomers retire daily in the US. The UK LDI crisis was the preview.

017
Resilience / CyberPE Partners / Risk Committees / CNI Operators

The Leveraged Perimeter: When Private Equity Loads the Firewall

Private equity's cost optimisation model meets cybersecurity infrastructure. The Clearlake-Ivanti case study in structural degradation.

Why “Parables”?

A parable teaches through story, not instruction. Each SITREP follows a consistent architecture: The Premise, Intelligence Update, Field Evidence, The Paradox, Tactical Mitigation, and The Verdict. These are structural analyses of fracture points that persist long after the headlines move on.

OSINT & Market Intelligence
Commodity WatchLoading
Loading...
Loading...
Loading...
Chokepoint StatusLoading
Loading...
Loading...
Loading...
Risk SignalsLoading
Loading...
Loading...
Loading...

Fetching data...

LOADING Fetching alerts...
LOADING Fetching market data...