The Three Phases
01
Expose the Mirage
Where does the illusion of control exist?

Identifying assumptions that mask structural dependency — outsourcing that transfers control but not risk, SLAs that cover availability but not logic, dashboards that show green while the architecture beneath drifts.

02
Map the Blast Radius
When it fails, how far does it travel?

Modelling contagion paths from a single fracture point through interconnected systems. A vendor insolvency, a chokepoint closure, a sanctions designation — tracing propagation from origin to enterprise-level impact.

03
Stress the Exit
Can you survive the answer?

Testing whether the organisation can physically extract itself under duress. Not theoretical contingency plans — operationally verified ability to migrate, reroute, or replace under hostile conditions.

Six Domains of Application

The domains define where you look. The three phases define how you look.

01
Operational Due Diligence
Pre-Acquisition Survivability Assessment

Before capital is deployed, the target’s infrastructure must be stress-tested — not just its financials. I assess the physical and digital architecture of acquisition targets to identify integration risks, single points of failure, and operational debt that standard due diligence misses. The question is not “Does it work?” but “Will it survive the transition?”

What I Assess
Business continuity architecture, vendor dependency mapping, SLA integrity under integration stress, data migration survivability, and operational contagion risk between merging entities.
Typical Engagement
Pre-acquisition ODD for a £390M financial services target. Assessed “survivability” of critical assets during integration. Identified risks that would have materialised as client-facing failures post-completion.
M&APE / SWFAsset IntegrityIntegration RiskBusiness Continuity
02
Supply Chain Resilience
Physical Logistics & Vendor Dependency

Modern supply chains are optimised for efficiency, not survivability. I map the single points of failure across physical logistics networks — from port congestion and rail bottlenecks to vendor lock-in within contested corridors. When a critical supplier enters administration, I model the “blast radius” before the shockwave arrives.

What I Assess
Third-party concentration risk, vendor lock-in exposure, stressed exit planning, supplier insolvency contagion modelling, and physical logistics network fragility.
Typical Engagement
Critical supplier insolvency analysis for a Tier-1 bank. Modelled the blast radius across dependent operations, validated emergency exit plans, and assessed contagion risk across business lines.
LogisticsCNIThird-Party RiskVendor ExitInsolvency Modelling
03
Geopolitical & Trade Risk
Sanctions, Export Controls & Commodity Flow

Sanctions regimes, export controls, and trade corridor disruptions are no longer background noise — they are primary drivers of asset liquidity and operational continuity. I monitor opaque markets across EMEA and the Gulf, mapping how regulatory shifts and geopolitical events cascade into commercial exposure.

What I Assess
Sanctions exposure mapping, CBAM and export control compliance impact, commodity chokepoint analysis, trade corridor vulnerability, and de-dollarisation risk to treasury operations.
Focus Areas
OFAC/EU sanctions designations, Houthi disruption to Red Sea shipping, Russian shadow fleet insurance gaps, CBAM carbon border adjustments, and critical mineral supply chain weaponisation.
SanctionsOSINTCommodity FlowEMEAGulf
04
Critical Infrastructure Assurance
Physical-to-Digital Interface Assessment

Critical National Infrastructure operates at the boundary between physical and digital systems. I assess the resilience of this interface — where a cyber event becomes a physical failure and a physical breach compromises digital integrity. Nuclear new-builds, energy networks, data centres, and high-frequency trading environments all share the same architectural vulnerability: the assumption that the boundary will hold.

What I Assess
Physical security of digital infrastructure, failover architecture, power and cooling resilience, environmental controls, and the operational reality of disaster recovery claims.
Typical Engagement
Cyber and operational resilience planning for a principal contractor on the UK’s largest nuclear new-build. Mapped the physical-to-digital interface of critical engineering components and stress-tested supply chain failure points.
NuclearEnergyData CentresHFTPhysical Security
05
Systemic Risk Architecture
Race Conditions, Silent Failures & Operational Debt

Automated systems accumulate operational debt invisibly. A billing system pursues a debt that does not exist. A compliance dashboard shows “In Stock” while the warehouse says otherwise. I identify the race conditions, timing vulnerabilities, and silent failures within automated systems before they cascade into enterprise-level events. The architecture is the risk.

What I Assess
Logic latency between physical operations and digital compliance, automated control integrity, SLA monitoring gaps, timing vulnerabilities in high-velocity environments, and silent failure accumulation.
Typical Engagement
Trading platform migration between Tier-1 data centres. Performed forensic-level reviews to identify race conditions and timing vulnerabilities within high-velocity trade flows during cutover. Assessed SLA monitoring and stressed exit planning.
FinTechAutomationControlsLogic LatencyRace Conditions
06
Intelligence & OSINT
Open-Source Intelligence & Geopolitical Pattern Recognition

A decade of open-source intelligence practice, built through live event monitoring with the Project Owl community and sustained engagement with geopolitical pattern recognition. I bridge the gap between raw intelligence and commercial execution — identifying market-moving events from AIS vessel tracking, conflict monitoring, and sanctions activity before they reach mainstream analysis.

Methodology
Real-time OSINT monitoring, AIS vessel tracking, satellite imagery analysis, sanctions designation tracking, commodity flow pattern recognition, and proprietary algorithmic trading signals derived from geopolitical events.
Track Record
Built proprietary trading algorithms in C# triggered by geopolitical events identified through real-time OSINT. Used AIS tracking data to identify an IRGC seizure of an oil tanker in real time, going long on crude before the event broke major news hours later.
Project OwlCFRAIS Tracking10yr TrackAlgorithmic OSINT
Currently open to new mandates — London, Gulf, or EMEA. If your organisation operates in contested environments or manages assets exposed to geopolitical volatility, I can help you find where the architecture breaks.
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