The Premise
Modern supply chains are managed via "Digital Twins" (ERPs like SAP/Oracle). We assume the screen matches reality. It rarely does. In periods of high volatility, a "Race Condition" emerges: the physical goods move faster (or slower) than the digital signal. This creates a "Ghost Inventory" where you are trading assets you do not actually have.
Intelligence Update: The 90-Day Lag
During the post-COVID supply shocks, the average latency between a Bill of Lading update and the physical availability of goods at the warehouse door stretched to 90 days. Algorithms (and ODD teams) make credit decisions based on the digital status. If the physical status is "Stuck in Customs," the balance sheet is hallucinating solvency.
Field Evidence: The Inventory Mirage
Auto manufacturers double-ordered chips because their ERPs showed "Zero Allocation." The chips existed but were stuck in a data blindspot (at port, un-scanned). When the backlog cleared, manufacturers were flooded with 2x inventory they did not need, crashing the spot price.
The Lesson: Your ERP is a historian, not a reporter.
63% of logistics managers report relying on batch updates that are 48 hours old. A container flagged "Arrived" when it hits the port geo-fence might sit there for 3 weeks before it is accessible.
The Lesson: If you audit a company based on "Arrived" goods, you are overestimating their liquidity.
The Verdict
Operational Due Diligence must audit the "Data-to-Dirt" Latency. If the dashboard says "In Stock" but the warehouse manager says "It's in a container under a stack of 50 others," the asset value is zero.