The Premise
Western policy is obsessed with "Mining." This is a strategic error. You can mine all the lithium you want in Australia or Nevada, but if you cannot refine it into battery-grade carbonate or hydroxide, it is just dirt. The true chokepoint is not the mine; it is the Chemical Refinery. And China controls the chemistry.
Intelligence Update: The Processing Monopoly
The Stat: China processes 65% of the world's Lithium, 74% of Cobalt, and 90% of Rare Earth Elements.
The Implication: Even if the US or EU successfully "friend-shores" mining to Canada or Australia, the raw ore still has to be shipped to China for processing before it can become a battery. The supply chain loop is not closed; it is merely lengthened.
The Gap: It takes 3–5 years to build a mine. It takes 7–10 years to permit and build a complex chemical refinery in the West due to environmental regulations.
Field Evidence: The Export Control
China restricted exports of Gallium and Germanium, two obscure metals critical for semiconductors and radar. Prices spiked immediately. Western defence contractors realised they had no alternative "non-Chinese" source for high-purity inputs.
The Lesson: This was a warning shot. "We control the inputs to your high-tech war machine."
Lithium prices collapsed by 80% due to oversupply and slowing EV demand. This bankrupted Western junior miners (e.g., Core Lithium in Australia). Meanwhile, Chinese integrated players (Ganfeng) kept operating, capturing market share during the downturn.
The Lesson: Volatility is a weapon. A price crash kills the competition faster than a tariff.
The Verdict
"Energy Independence" is a myth if your battery supply chain starts in a mine in Australia but passes through a refinery in Jiangxi. The strategic play is Midstream Investment: Building the ugly, chemical processing capacity at home, regardless of the NIMBYism.