Frederick J. Ayres

The infrastructure that moves global commodities is fragile. I find out where it breaks.

Operational Due Diligence. Supply Chain Resilience. Critical National Infrastructure. I bridge the gap between macro-level geopolitical risk and the micro-level systemic failures that destroy asset value.

About

I've spent the last five years inside Tier-1 financial institutions and cross-sector consultancies — leading operational resilience audits, running M&A due diligence on acquisitions worth hundreds of millions, and stress-testing the infrastructure that underpins critical national assets from nuclear energy builds to high-frequency trading environments. Before that, a Master's with Distinction in Cyber Security, Threat Intelligence & Digital Forensics, a decade of OSINT practice with the Project Owl community, and an early foundation in operational discipline under a former member of B Squadron, 22nd SAS. I work at the intersection of physical systems and geopolitical risk — where a port closure, a sanctions designation, or a single vendor insolvency can cascade into an enterprise-level event. My focus now is on Commodities, Trade Risk, and Operational Due Diligence for organisations that understand the world is getting more volatile, not less.

Currently open to new mandates — London, Gulf, or EMEA. Get in touch.
6 domains
01
Operational Due Diligence
Pre-acquisition survivability assessment. Stress-testing the physical and digital infrastructure of target assets before capital deployment.
M&A PE / SWF Asset Integrity
02
Supply Chain Resilience
Mapping single points of failure across physical logistics networks. From port congestion to rail bottlenecks to vendor lock-in within contested corridors.
Logistics CNI Third-Party Risk
03
Geopolitical & Trade Risk
Monitoring opaque markets, sanctions regimes, and export control implications on asset liquidity across EMEA and the Gulf.
Sanctions OSINT Commodity Flow
04
Critical Infrastructure Assurance
Physical-to-digital interface assessment for CNI assets. Nuclear, energy, data centres, and high-frequency trading environments.
Nuclear Energy Data Centres
05
Systemic Risk Architecture
Identifying race conditions, silent failures, and operational debt within automated systems before they cascade into enterprise-level events.
FinTech Automation Controls
06
Intelligence & OSINT
A decade of open-source intelligence practice. Live event monitoring, geopolitical pattern recognition, and tactical information synthesis.
Project Owl CFR 10yr Track
Case studies & analysis
Systemic Risk Feb 2026

The Logic of Latency: A Billing "Race Condition"

How a Tier-1 logistics provider automated the pursuit of a debt that did not exist — an architectural failure caused by logic latency between physical operations and digital compliance.

Sector: Logistics / FinTech
Infrastructure Coming Soon

The Survivability Question: M&A in a Contested Environment

What happens when a £390M acquisition meets the operational reality of migrating critical pension infrastructure during a period of systemic vendor instability.

Sector: Financial Services / M&A
Geopolitical Coming Soon

The Blast Radius of Insolvency

When a critical supplier enters administration, how quickly does the shockwave reach your operations? Modelling contagion in outsourced supply chains.

Sector: Supply Chain / Third-Party Risk
Trade Corridors Coming Soon

Chokepoints: Physical Risk in Global Commodity Flow

From the Suez Canal to the Strait of Malacca — mapping the physical vulnerabilities that determine whether commodities reach their destination.

Sector: Energy / Maritime / Agriculture
OSINT & Market Intelligence
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Get in Touch

Open to conversations about operational resilience, commodity risk, and due diligence mandates. London, Gulf, or EMEA.

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